A new analysis of solar activity suggests NASA’s Artemis 2 mission to the moon should be postponed until late 2026 to minimize astronaut exposure to potentially dangerous solar superflares. These powerful bursts of radiation, capable of disrupting communications and endangering space travelers, are now more predictable thanks to research identifying previously unknown cycles in solar behavior.
The Threat from Solar Superflares
Solar superflares are the most intense flares the sun emits, releasing massive amounts of X-ray radiation. While predicting when a superflare will occur remains impossible, scientists have discovered that they tend to cluster during specific periods linked to a 1.7-year and a 7-year cycle in the sun’s magnetic activity.
Currently, Earth is in a heightened superflare season, lasting from mid-2025 to mid-2026, with activity concentrated in the sun’s southern hemisphere. Astronauts traveling outside Earth’s protective magnetic field – as Artemis 2 crew will – are particularly vulnerable to the radiation from these events. Launching in April, as NASA currently plans, would coincide with this period of increased risk.
New Forecasting Method Confirmed by Recent Data
A team led by Victor M. Velasco Herrera of the National Autonomous University of Mexico analyzed 50 years of X-ray data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Their findings allow for one-to-two-year advance warnings about periods of heightened superflare activity, giving space agencies and infrastructure operators crucial time to prepare.
Remarkably, the team’s forecasting ability was validated retrospectively. Data from the European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter revealed four superflares that occurred on the far side of the sun in May 2024. These events perfectly aligned with the patterns predicted by Velasco Herrera’s team, even before the researchers were aware of their existence.
Implications for Space Travel and Earth-Based Infrastructure
This new predictive capability is not just critical for astronaut safety. Solar superflares can also disrupt satellite operations, damage power grids, and even affect airline passengers due to increased radiation exposure at high altitudes. The ability to forecast these events allows for proactive measures to protect both space-based assets and terrestrial infrastructure.
Another predicted period of heightened superflare activity will begin in early 2027. However, delaying Artemis 2 until late 2026 would significantly reduce the mission’s risk exposure.
“Our method gives space weather operators and satellite managers one to two years of advance warning about when conditions are most dangerous… This critical lead time allows them to prepare and protect communications systems, power grids and astronaut safety.” – Victor M. Velasco Herrera
The improved understanding of solar cycles represents a major step towards mitigating the risks posed by space weather, safeguarding both human explorers and the technologies that rely on space-based systems.
